Leonard: yeah thank you for the introduction and thank you for having me so current drone wars
armed conflicts and war have not changed in general also this year the world has seen war
crimes and genocides civilians are still slaughtered and raped millions die of hunger
millions are forced to leave their homes but the bombardments have changed due to military
advancement the deployment of unmanned combat vehicles of military drones is noteworthy
before i start i want to announce a trigger warning inherently with this topic as violence
some will be visible other will be subtle drones
have been used by the military a century ago
they have been a useful tool for information gathering and reconnaissance in world war one
in the 1930s and world war tow first remote control tanks and demolition vehicles emerged
nowadays in numerous conflicts we see military unmanned vehicles in the sky on the ground
on the water and underwater
it is remarkable how modern drones significantly
close the gap between sensor and shooter on one
side are micro drones like the black hornet used
in at least 50 countries by military and special
operations or special forces for recon on the other
side of the scale are gigantic warships and torpedoes
such as the intercontinental nuclear powered and
nuclear armed autonomous torpedo called poseidon
a significant part of the development of unmanned vehicles is
not arbitrary or by chance but part of a long-lasting military
strategy of applying machine intelligence to modern warfare
autonomous weapon systems such as the patria surface to air missile system
and loitering munition a combination of drone and cruise missile such as the harpy or harrop
programmed to surveil an area and to attack enemies
autonomously have been around since the 1980s
but still in current military programs in particular in the US in Europe
and China but also elsewhere the advancement of autonomous combat actions
as well as the teaming of drones with soldiers are primary objectives
the future combat air system a gigantic project
which is or maybe isn't anymore conducted by the
armament companies of Germany France and Spain is
just one of many examples the german company Helsing
presented proudly the ability to let military jets fly autonomously and direct to threats
in Darpas ACE program a similar prototype but for
the F-16 fighter have been developed after deep mind
demonstrated that the trained neural network can
defeat human pilots in virtual reality dogfights
the goal as Helsing puts it is autonomous air dominance
the systems presented here are designed for the
role for the war for the war of global rivals adversaries of
global of aqueous strength the drone wars are in preparation
and some have started a significant class of unmanned aerial
vehicles are those flying at medium altitude with long endurance
initially only available to the US and Israel shortly after to the
UK and China the number of countries which produced or bought armed
medium altitude long endurance drones have raised to almost 50. the first augmentation
was due to Chinese exports of wing long in the Middle East and North Africa
the second was due to Turkish export of Baykara TB2 costing
only one to two million dollars they are comparable low priced
TB2 have been widely used since 2016 in Syria
to fight against the Kurds and in 2019 in Libya
and also in Assakh they played a central role
in the long-lasting conflict between Armenia and
Azerbaijan which continued in 2020 in the following i would like to discuss three different
conflicts the Russian Ukrainian war the civil war
in Myanmar and the fight in the Middle East between
Israel and Iran and what are the perspectives the full
-scale invasion of Russia in Ukraine has unleashed
a drone war unseen before moreover it is a turning
point in the use of military drones. Drones are not
seen anymore as expensive expensive and superior
systems but primary as munition as expendable items in
war of attrition. Since its beginning a wide spectrum
of use is used on both sides the TB2 has been a
real advantage for Ukraine for some time but this
changed quite quickly overall the war is kind of a test
that Russia Ukraine and the NATO are experimenting
a lot with different kind of drones with frequencies
and autonomy always adapting to the enemy within
weeks prototypes are produced and tested in combat
drones are used for recon but a vast amount of kamikaze drones are deployed
on the front line in particular FPV drones are mostly deployed tactical inspired by robots
financially and organizational furnished by civil
society this kind of loitering munition has been used
since the early days of the invasion this kind has
been used from time to time in battles elsewhere
for the for over 10 years now and contrary to many
expectation these low-cost consumer drones have
great relevance for this war usually equipped with a
rocket propelled grenade they are remotely controlled
into their target. First applied by Ukrainian forces but
quickly adapted by water today drones are responsible
for 70 to 80 percent of all human and material losses.
The cost benefit ratio is enormous several hundred
toilet drones can destroy tactical equipment such as
tanks worth million. Consequently vehicles are more
on or removed from the battlefield soldiers are
marching several kilometers to watch the destination.
Drones are omnipresent and created a transparent
battle space with the aim of observing every movement
within minutes the drones arrive at the scene ready to
kill. An Ukrainian soldier cited by the New York times
said that it feels like thousand snipers in the sky
FPV drones are used to burn enemies and hideouts
and of course to attack other drones. Both sides developed
enormous production capabilities. R ussia claims to reduce
currently 1.5 million small expandable drones mostly
quadcopters. Ukraine ramped its weapon factories as well
and claims to produce 1 million. Taking both with a grain
of salt a high a six a high thick high six figure number
is very realistic. Numbers on both sides are increasing.
The claims are to reach 4 .5 million each next year.
In addition to these small quadcopters larger kamikaze drones are produced.
While Ukraine is able to produce approximately 30 000
fixed-wing UAV with long range, Russia produces large
large quantities of guarantee which are the Iranian
shahad 136 which you see here in the picture.
Using these and missiles Russia attacks Ukrainian cities and infrastructure,
every two years every two days or so. Power cuts and blackouts are common.
Just a few days ago on 23rd Russia launched 38 missiles
and 635 of these shahad drones overnight across
in at least 18 ah 13 regions. To fight back FPV
drones have been used by the Ukrainian sequence secret
services to destroy high value targets. In june 2014 Ukrainian soldiers have used these
FPV drones 600 kilometer behind the front line to
destroy Russian stealth fighters approximately worth
50 million new dollar. One year later in operation
spiderweb the SPU conducted a coordinated strike
on aircraft with 115 quadcopter in five location.
The SPU claims that 40 aircraft have been destroyed
including several with cruise missiles. Using long
range UAVs where the level of autonomy is similar to one
of a cruise missile Ukraine attacked Russian oil depots
and refineries many of which deep behind the front
line. And against the Russian army Ukraine has
developed in a very short period of time remote control
exploding vessels and produces them in large
scale. Using them or using these they were able to
significantly reduce the Russian fleet and they are also
used against civilian oil tankers in the black sea.
In this case the turkish oil tanker transporting
sanctioned russian oil. A different but to some extent
a similar conflict is the resistance fight against
the military after the coup in 2021 in Myanmar.
The conflict is globally on third position with respect to counted drone events.
Short after the coup hundreds of locally guerrilla
groups took arms against the authoritarian regime.
Not backed by a foreign state the weaponry is much
more DIY. Combat drones are built from commercial ones.
Missing parts are ordered from China or self-produced
using 3d printers. The used explosives are diverse as
well using what's available. People are sharing their
knowledge offline and online to learn from each other
and to provide blueprints. Resisting groups primary use multi-water drones. Again
these low cost but effective weapons have been
successfully used against military checkpoints
convoys and high value assets such as helicopters
and in some operations barracks weapon factories
and military headquarters have been attacked.
Overall the guerrilla conducted 2100 drone strikes.
The numbers increased until late 2023 short after
operation 10-27 took place. It was a large scale operation
of several resistance group yielding heavy losses on Myanmar military side and large
territorial conquest by the rebels. The military reacted in four
ways. Suppressing imports of drone parts from China of course,
jamming of frequencies of commercial URV, adapting
the strategy and deploying small URVs themselves
and increasing the numbers of air strikes. Myanmar military air strikes
raised from 200 in 2023 to almost 1200 in 2025.
Overall 2025 was the turning point where the regime again
gained much power much strength, with the help of its allies
as Russia and China. But similar to the Ukrainian fighters
or fight these fighting the superior power Russia,
giving up is not an option for the resistance.
Tactics and equipment however have to be adapted.
Let us not focus on the third scene. Since and including
october 7 event in 2023 numerous breathtaking and
escalating events events have taken place. Before we go into detail
let me quickly recall some facts of the abilities of the two states
of deploying URVs. Israel was the pioneer of modern drone technology
and has since stayed at the forefront of military drone use.
However both Israel and Iran are manufacturing URVs for reconnaissance and as munition
since the 1980s. But Israel's arsenal is much diverse and
advanced self-speaking these sophisticated weapons are
in frequent use. The global tendency of small multi-rotor drones are also here recognizable
and there's a shift from special forces to platoon level.
Mostly for reconnaissance in urban areas tactical
drones became an extension of platoon level soldiers
deploying to see beyond the next corner to deploy and explore a building or a
subterranean complex, or to be used as a guided
munition. The onset of the Hamas Israeli war was
war accelerated many programs with respect to small
URVs into action. In april 2024 the IDF system lavander
has been disclosed and has been disclosed and has been in the news around the world.
Using mostly data obtained from mass surveillance the IDF has
trained a neural network to identify features of suspected Hamas
or Palestinian islamic Jihid members. The IDF has then used
the system for generating lists of potential target and to
estimate the likelihood of being a member. When the
system was used to mark also the lower wings 37 000
palestinians were on the list within weeks and their homes potential air strike targets.
Then usually at night the attack have been the
attacks are conducted using dump bombs but not drones.
Quite simultaneously on april 13th 2024 the Iranian
armed forces conducted operation true promise.
It was a collaboration with the Islamic resistance in
Iraq Libanese Hezbollah and the Yemenis Houthi. Iran
launched around 170 Shahat over 30 cruise missiles and over 120 ballistic missiles.
The attack was the largest attempted drone strike in history of the ongoing conflict.
The attack intended to overhaul Israel's anti-aircraft
defenses. However, 99% of the incoming weapons were
destroyed by missile interception systems of Israel
the US Jordan the UK and France. Israel's reaction was
very different a long-lasting operation became
visible. On september 17th and 18th 2024 thousands of
handheld pages and hundreds of walkie-talkies intended for use by
Hezbollah detonated simultaneously in two separate
events across Libelon and Syria. And half a year ago
half a year ago in June Israel conducted operation
Rising Lion. It was an overnight activity aimed to
not to advance nuclear and long-range weapon
capabilities. Israel strikes have hit several iranian
military sites and nuclear facilities. Such as, uranium
enrichment facilities in Natas and Fordol or the
nuclear technology center in Ishafar. With respect to
the underground facilities however most of it was very
limited effect. According to Iranian state media leading
military as well as six nuclear scientists have been
assassinated and according to Israeli officials around 200 IAF
IAF aircraft have been involved in the operation dropping around 330 munitions.
Short before the operation began Israel drones
launched from within Iran stuck dozens of radars and
surface to air missile launchers. Other drones were
launched by operators from within Iran to attack
long-range surface-to-surface weapons. To sum up
the production of numbers is massive we can see that
in the Ukrainian and Russia- Ukrainian war and in the
war between Israel and Iraq. In the three cases i showed
you small quadcopters or multi-rotor URVs in general
play a significant role. Drones are still mainly remote
controlled but already often equipped with the
autonomy of a cruise missile in order to crash into
the target even if the connection is lost. More
and more they are performing autonomous tasks.
What are the perspectives? 10 years ago in 2016
the US department of defense demonstrated one of
the world's largest microdrone swarms. 103 small quadcopters
have been dropped from three aircrafts. They were about
15 centimeters in the width and performed specific
tasks. In particular collective decision making
and adaptive formation flying. A few months later China
showed the world that they can do the same of course
and besides these fully armed motherships have
been developed able to quickly release hundreds of
quadcopters. A possible scenario interesting in this context is described in the document
"Künstliche Intelligenz für die Landstreitkräfte"
which translates to artificial intelligence for
the army published by the bundeswehr in 2019. 15
000 autonomous drones of different kind and size are
released from aircraft. They then form swarms to
conduct different tasks such as reconnaissance and
and combined attacks. 15 000 sounds insane but
it is in fact quite close to reality as mentioned
Selensky as well as Putin each claimed to ramp up
production to 4.5 million FPV drones next year.
This is approximately 12 000 a day. For some years
now startups are addressing the military market for
smarter and interconnected weaponry. In the US
the production capacities are increased as well
and dual wheels as an l1 a huge one billion dollar
factory in Ohio is just one prominent example. And as
you all know Europe doesn't want to fall behind.
After the increase of NATO's budget several years
by several members. This year We Arm Europe shortly
after renamed to Readiness 2030 have been announced.
The EU plans to spend almost one trillion euro in
military programs and weapon systems in the next
five years. This is approximately the amount the US
spends every year and split into five years this is
about in between the amount China and Russia invest.
Initially a drone of wars was proposed consisting of 10 000
armed drones surveilling the borders. Quickly and due
to the prompt racist agitation of the governments of
Italy and Greece the EU members states agreed to extend the purpose to monitor migration.
Now the european counter drone system and the east flank
watch focused and land borders are two or four central
pillars of Readiness 2030. But drones are already in EU present at EU
borders. Frontex deploys since 2018 medium altitude long endurance drones
like Heron or Hermos 900 over the meritarian sea to monitor migration roads.
In june 2025 Frontex tested shields AI autonomous
reconnaissance drone VBAT in Bulgaria. In more and more
armed border conflicts for example in the Cashmir conflict drones play an important role.
And more and more surveillance towers are deployed.
In some cases they are armed as you can see here.
It is an autonomous machine gun with thermal cameras and
alert system, deployed in 2016 at the Turkish-Syrian border.
When the system detects a human being the system
announces in three languages that the guarded zone
should be left if that doesn't happen promptly the
system shoots. US customs and border protection
operates predators and since 2020 small wing URVs and
endorial sentry which are autonomous surveillance towers.
In 2026 thousands of autonomous drones from and on dress are
deployed as well similar in the UK board at the UK border
where the Endorial ASD has been deployed since 2022. Before that, uhm,
they have used Taylor's Watch Keepers and Hermos 900. It is clear and autonomous weapons
like the Bolt-M FPV drones we have seen here and even through that these current drones
and surveillance system in the US in the UK and by Frontex don't shoot they are producing
a deadly border where people are forced to take
more risks forced to take more deadly routes.
And self-evident this also changes the domestic
landscape. Skydio another US company has become in
a few years a multi-billion dollar company and the largest drone manufacturer in the US.
First approaching the military the company has now
contracts with 800 law enforcement and security agencies.
Their drones are launched hundreds of times a day
monitor people in towns and cities across the US.
The early adopter, New York police department, has
launched more than 20 000 drone flights in less than a
year. The world is heating up. With it, more conflicts
will arise. If global warming continues at the current
rate we are facing 3.5 degrees celsius increase in the
next 40 years. We have to face it that this increase
will make huge parts of the earth uninhabitable. About
half the world's population will be forced to flee.
We are facing a challenging dystopia. Many of us
know the situation about people being pushed back
and a militarized border regime, forcing people
to take roots with low survival expectations.
Fortresses are built and fascist and authoritarian regimes are gaining power in many
countries. We have to fight this.
Audience: [applause]
Herald: Thank you Leonard for your impressive talk on this terrifying matter.
So i know there are people already leaving. It's okay
but please do it quietly. We have now some minutes
for a Q&A, so if you have a question, line up on the
microphones. There are four in the middle rows and
there will be also the possibility to answer questions
from the internet. Yes. And we'll start with microphone
one. And please be quiet.
Audience: Hello. Thank you for the talk. As modern weapons are increasingly more advanced,
also increasingly are more reliant on microchips for
example or other technology, do you think that a war
between two large countries that produce these microchips
might turn out to be more of a conventional war?
For example a war between China and America might
uh, yeah, first result in a wave where all factories
that produce microchips are destroyed and no drones
can be produced anymore. I s that something that you
would expect or do you think that drones will stay prevalent uhm for all wars to come?
Leonard: Well, i think that weapon factories of course will
be attacked and that states will try to claim most
of the areas where resources are extracted which are
strategic use. Of course, this includes materials used
for example for chip production and the chip production industry in general.
Audience: Thank you.
So now— microphone one again please.
Audience: Uhm, first off thank you for the very informative
talk. Uh, I don't even think it's a question of
if some of these companies are using open source
technologies, it's been like known that they use
some and I was wondering if during your research you
learned uhm anything about that like what technologies
they might use or abuse even against like um the policies of those projects?
Leonard: Well— I learned that both
open source and closed source or proprietary closed software has been used
um and most of the software doesn't have any restriction
in it, so it can be used by the military of course
if it's not forbidden by the license.
Herald: Thank you. Are there questions from the internet?
Yes? No. Okay, then microphone three please.
Audience: Um you were talking— great talk, first— then you were talking about um
basically the militaryfication of the border,h but
basically not against military targets like the
Russians or something like this but against basically
um yeah, refugees, um is there already a change in
the thoughts from the decision parties or is the this status quo?
Leonard: That's both the case so as i mentioned, it's—
there are two important pillars. One is fighting um um that's what— i'm ramping up— the
abilities to push back migrants at the border and the second ability is to fight
incoming drones. And this is still on the table, so there are still
um plans to be made to deploy 10 000 armed drones at the
border, attacking then: drones or attacking the other
countries. Um yeah, maybe that's enough.
Herald: Thank you. Microphone two please.
Audience: Yeah. With the rapid integration
uh of these technologies, uhm, and the known competence of all the states, are there any
exploits or um other attacks on these technologies by malicious actors or examples of them?
Leonard: Not that I'm aware of or can discuss here.
Audience: Ah ok.
Herald: Thank you. Microphone one.
Audience: Yeah thank you for the great presentation.
Uh you mentioned that europe has allocated a large budget to participate in this race.
How much of the supply chain for this drone technology is actually a local supply chain
in europe versus sourcing technology from rivals, or potential rivals?
Leonard: Mmm, well, it depends on the, I think on the, how you
describe the system.If it's just— or if we, if we focus
on chip production of course we know that much of
it is not in europe, it's a, yeah, globalized system
and most of the chips are produced in taiwan.
And um, of course, every company, every country
is now more and more trying to build up chip factories
in their own country, reducing uh dependencies and also
producing uh more and more weaponry in um in the
countries as well. However um there are still lots of
dependencies um which are not so easy to lose.
Audience: Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Microphone one.
Audience: When you showed the example with the drone swarm in the United States, the text said
one of the things that they're able to do is self
-healing? Do you know what that— what's meant by that?
Leonard: Yeah that's a bit silly. Um, it means that they are
forming packs in a way and then the healing means
that the pack is still able to conduct certain uh tasks
by um some drones with switching the pack, um, such that
always certain drones with certain function are within, uh, such a group.
Audience: All right, thank you. Yeah.
Thank you. Microphone three.
Audience: Yeah. Uh, thanks for the great talk and um how do you expect drone swarms to commu— commu—
communicate when we have all the jammers, like…
Leonard: Yes. Well, we have seen um jamming in many conflicts and
however still the drones are able to communicate
in a way. So, there's a constant ways between the
adversary jamming some frequencies, and then, the
military adapting to others. Um, so I think we will
see the same here: that they are just um,
enormously equipped with several sending devices on—
sending them on different frequencies in different
modes um such that when one frequency or several
are jammed, they are still somehow able to communicate.
Audience: Thanks.
…or fall back on autonomous, uh, yeah, modes when there's nothing else possible.
Audience: Thank you. Microphone one.
Uhh, yes. It seems like fiber optically controlled drones
is a growing um thing in the russia-ukrainian conflict.
Have you seen that in the other conflicts as well or
are those still mostly radio based?
Leonard: I've seen it only there. So, it is actually there. A quick a relatively new
development. Maybe to explain it to the audience: so
instead of yeah remotely controlled drones they just
equip the, for example FPV drones, then, um, with 10 or 30 or 50
kilometers of fiber optic cable and they are then flying, uhm,
yeah around, and just pull this cable uh with them. And, um yeah it is relatively new and
uh we will see uh I think it might happen that this will show up in Myanmar.
Herald: Thank you. Microphone three.
Audience: Uh thanks for your talk. You mentioned the edge Israel
has in drone technology and indeed Germany is buying
drones from Israel, is buying anti-air defense systems
from Israel. Do you think reluctance on part of
Germany and other european countries in upholding
international law might be uh, in part, the reason for
that is that is that they don't have domestic capabilities and they just want to be able to
make use of this technology so other matters have to take a second position to that?
Leonard: Well they are doing
both. So, of course, in EU, um, they are currently
using the drones um ukrainian— or produced by ukrainian
companies but they are also trying to build them
themselves but so far they were not able to do it in
the same efficiency. However, um— yeah I— I— maybe I
don't get your point. What's your question again?
Audience: Yeah, what i'm
wondering about is: how big is the deficit in EU
production of drones and does that— can that also
influence political decisions here because we don't
have the know-how to build these drones or the
systems to defend against drones completely in the
EU? …so, we have to do trade -offs in other matters.
Leonard: Yes. Of course there are some trade-offs and of course
these, uh, these programs like uh: "We are 2030" are
exactly for that purpose: to strengthen the military
complex here and to be able to produce equally
powerful drones. Uhm—
Herald: Sadly, I have to cut you two off
Leonard: Ok…
Herald: at this point, but, where can people find you here
when they have more questions? I would say: maybe
outside because of the next talks. So, have a great
great applause for Leonard and his wonderful talk…